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m88 that’s fine. They’ve got a fun team with a young and exciting core group, and they’ve got a crazy manager. They play delightful football. Everyone’s hate for them is unfounded and stupid, but you should also not choose to support them unless you’re a massive troll.

If you’re in Canada, Sportsnet has the rights, while BT Sport has it in the U.K.

If you hate defense, this league is for you

Is the “pragmatic” defensive approach of many Premier League teams putting you to sleep? The Bundesliga might be the place for you. They also probably won’t stick around long.

Werder Bremen: Their recent history is actually pretty great, but they’ve fallen off a cliff recently. He does magical, jaw-dropping things every game, like this.


Champions: Bayern Munich

Hamburg: A risky but potentially inspired long play. Learn from our mistakes, ignore or simply reply “OK,” and move on with your life.

Bayern wrecking everyone is fine

The first thing most critics say when they try to play down the quality of the Bundesliga is “Bayern always win it, how can that be interesting?” It’s definitely a fair point and an understandable complaint, because in most cases a single dominant team is pretty dull — but in this case, it actually works out just fine for the Bundesliga.

Darmstadt: Newly promoted team who has spent huge chunks of their history in the fourth and fifth divisions. They might be a good team to pull for if you like reclamation projects, but be ready for some pain in the short term.

We have an alternative — a league where everyone is pretty good, teams rarely play negatively and the press doesn’t search high and low for excuses to trash people. Here’s what this monstrosity looks like once they’ve established possession.

Eintracht Frankfurt: If you’re extra-glory hunter averse but don’t want your club to get relegated this year and want to go see a game, this is your team! You can get a direct flight to Frankfurt from basically anywhere in the world. It’s a sensible 3-4-3 with actual defenders, midfielders and wingbacks without the ball, but they either have the ball, are in a transition phase or in a dead ball situation for like 85 percent of games, so it’s rare that they actually look like their listed formation. If you like unpredictability, this might be the team for you.

Bonus — Kevin De Bruyne: He might get transferred to one of the Manchester clubs before the deadline, but if he doesn’t, you should watch every Wolfsburg match just for him. Bas Dost, Andre Schrrle, Luiz Gustavo and company are ready to bring the noise to the Bundesliga once more. They never get handed the title, of course –they earned every bit of their success through constant innovation — but that doesn’t help anyone feel better. Same with Barcelona or Juventus. Plus, they’re in a city a normal person would feasibly want to visit and they’re in a big enough market that they could get really good someday. Bad idea.. There will be lots of games on Fox Sports 2, about one per week on Fox Sports 1, plus more onFox Soccer 2 Go andFox Sports Go. It feels good to be a fan of a team that wins things. The two really strange things here are Alaba sprinting forward from his central defense spot to become a (usually attacking) midfielder and the unbalanced, left-leaning alignment. When Chelsea loses, no one cares but Chelsea fans and whoever beat them. It’s moved off GolTV and onto Fox Sports platforms. And you think to yourself, “maybe I’ll support Schalke/Leverkusen.” But you should not do that, because they will break your heart into pieces every single season, without fail, until the end of eternity.

Bayer Leverkusen: Don’t do it.

football formations

You’ll see fairly normal back three and four setups from Bayern this season, but a lot of this unbalanced 3-4-3 jumble. Having said that, they have a badass stadium, fun players and compete for trophies without being the “front-runners.” A perfectly sensible choice.

Stuttgart: It wasn’t that long ago that Stuttgart were good. He was voted the best player in the Bundesliga last season after racking up 10 goals and 20 (!!!) assists. Now 26, Reus is entering what should be the prime of his career. The original Illuminati was founded there, so, again, a club that you should only support if you’re a troll.

Champions League playoffs: Borussia Mnchengladbach

Hoffenheim: A totally made-up team that lots of people hate. AmericanAron Jhannsson plays here, but no defenders do. Bayer have the nickname “Neverkusen” because of their 2001-02 season, when they finished runners-up in all three competitions, and second in the Bundesliga for the fourth time in five seasons.

Bayern Munich: Okay, so you’re a glory hunter. The town they play in has 3,000 people and the nearest big town only has 35,000. Watching Bayer sober is like watching any other team on amphetamines. Only two teams failed to average at least a goal per game in Germany’s top division last season, with two above two goals per game and three more at at least a goal and a half per game. If winning immediately is not important to you, this is a solid choice.

Kln: Great city, great logo, nice stadium, huge potential. But if he can reach pre-injury levels and dominate from the wing, Schalke can get themselves back into the Champions League. But this is the fairest representation of a starting XI we have right now. They have a recent history of mismanagement and could get themselves relegated, but they’re a slightly less embarrassing team to follow than Hamburg.

Wolfsburg: They were a thrilling side a year ago, going on an incredible run that included a titanic victory over Bayern to start the second half of the season. FOX is also going to carry the season openeron their YouTube channel, something that’s hopefully not just a one-off occurrence.

Augsburg: A pretty solid, well-run club in a perfectly nice place that’s a short train ride away from Munich. Only pick Werder if your idea of fun is 5-4 losses.

Despite being two of the biggest clubs in the league, Schalke and Leverkusen have never won the Bundesliga. They were great last season, finishing fifth, but it’s hard to envision them making the Champions League. Due to Franck Ribery’s fitness troubles and the fact that Alaba, Philipp Lahm, Javi Martinez, Arjen Robben and Thomas Mller have played multiple positions in this same formation (Mller’s played four, Alaba and Lahm three each), you never really know what you’re going to get. He’s constantly involved in their attack, having a hand in many of their goals and using his near-bottomless energy to disrupt defenses and demand attention to create space and openings for his teammates.

Mainz: They’ve been a yo-yo in the Bundesliga standings for the last year, bouncing between just under the top four and just over the relegation zone. What matters is that the vast majority of these teams don’t give a rip about pragmatism or being defensive stalwarts or any of that. This will probably never happen, but it’s not impossible.

football formations

Timo Werner: Stuttgart have recently been a strange, talent-sucking black hole of awfulness. They also have American international Timothy Chandler, and their games are pretty high-scoring.

Julian Draxler: Once Schalke’s biggest star, Draxler’s stock has dropped thanks to injuries and the rise of Max Meyer. Schalke have the best group of Under-23 talent in the league and they’re going to give all of their kids major playing time this season. Borussia Mnchengladbach: They’re in the Champions League. So if you are only interested in watching a soccer league because of the title race, the Bundesliga might not be for you. 10 or you may miss something amazing.

Just getting into the Bundesliga? You’ve made a very good choice. You look at their squads and think, hey, I’ve heard of some of those players, they’re pretty good! You watch some highlights and see how fun they are. You just have to develop thick skin over people calling you a glory hunter, which is what you are.

Hannover: USMNT legend Steve Cherundolo captained them, they have some solid Germany Under-21 players andJapanese attacking midfielder Hiroshi Kiyotake is really fun. HSV are the Bundesliga’s resident tire fire and might get themselves relegated due to their awful internal politics, but if they ever end up run by someone who knows what they’re doing, they’re going to challenge for trophies and firmly establish themselves as the second-best team in Germany. Outside of the league winners, there are only two spots that go straight to the group stage and one more that has to go through qualifying to get there — and there are a lot more than three teams capable of winning those spots.

Granit Xhaka: While you don’t see a lot of central midfielders on lists like this, Xhaka is well worth making special mention of. All of Schalke’s league titles came before the top teams were brought into one league system in 1963, and they’ve been runners-up six times since. Alaba might be the world’s first true endline-to-endline central player, while the extra numbers on the left work for two reasons. They recently achieved back-to-back promotions and have a lot of players who came up with them from the third division, so that’s cool. While largely a set-piece specialist with a lethally accurate shot from long range, he also has a subtle and wonderful creative presence in open play, with an understated but incredibly effective style on the ball that guts opposing defenses. If you watch Leverkusen, don’t take your eyes off No. The question isn’t “why should you support Gladbach,” it’s “why wouldn’t you support Gladbach?” They’re even nicknamed “the foals” for crying out loud. This year, they’ve already kicked things off with a shocking comeback win to upset Bayern again in the German Supercup. When Bayern lose, you notice, because you know it took an incredible performance to get the job done.

Hakan Calhanoglu: While the Turkish international is just 21, Calhanoglu already had a profound influence on the Bundesliga the past two years. Here’s everything you need to know.

Welcome to the Bundesliga, where you can check your narratives at the door and enjoy some fantastic soccer.

Things like a fullback pinching in and a defensive midfielder going between two center backs to pick up the ball are not strange. Plus, Bayern had a pretty serious injury crisis last year and still won the league easily. They have a lot of good players, but they can’t get any of them to play well. Back and forth they go, where they stop, no one knows. A good choice, even if it kind of exposes you as a noob.

An expansion on Schalke and Neverkusen

You look at Schalke and Bayer Leverkusen’s recent league positions. There’s a lot of moralizing and everyone who has a bad game is branded “crap,” until they do well, when they become “brilliant.” The average Premier League player cycles between crap and brilliant about five times per season. Neither of these things is impossible, but they are unlikely. One, Lahm is good enough to command an entire flank by himself. The competition between Bayer Leverkusen, Wolfsburg, Gladbach, Schalke, Borussia Dortmund and other clubs over the last few years has been intense to watch unfold, with fierce battles taking place as teams struggle for position. The first, is that when Bayern lose, it’s actually notable and fascinating and must-see action. When Wolfsburg took Bayern down to open up the second half of the season last year, everyone stood up and took notice, suddenly realizing just how good Wolfsburg really were. But they’re the only team in the Bundesliga that plays crap, sleep-inducing football every year. They will lose nine-goal matches in which they had a multiple-goal lead, probably more than once, and you will not enjoy those matches if you support them. These things also make it occasionally unpleasant to follow. He’s a lot more talented than his three goals in 19 games from last season suggests.

But goal-per-game numbers are boring. Be it the thunderous and versatile attack of Bayern, the dynamic lethality of Wolfsburg or the jaw-dropping free kicks of Hakan Calhanoglu at Bayer Leverkusen, you will be entertained.

But if you do not have any emotional investment in the outcome of their matches, Schalke and Bayer are extremely fun to watch. The way the players move when they get the ball is unique.

Get all kinds of stories, rumors, game coverage, and Vines of dudes getting hit in the beans in your inbox every day.

Of note, Bayern rotates heavily and does not have a set first choice starting XI. There will not be a title race unless they have a catastrophic injury crisis or Pep Guardiola goes insane and tries to fire everyone. But the guy who started SAP wanted a successful club, so here they are. The question, though, is how healthy he is — last season was largely wasted for Reus because he spent most of it either sidelined with injury or playing hurt. Their teams will let you take your shot, but try to find a way to break it up in progress so they can take their own. After a bad 2014-15 campaign, they’ll be hoping their 19-year-old SuperProspect starts scoring goals from the wide forward spot. One of the best choices.

Schalke: Don’t do it.

Relegation playoff: Hamburg

The English Premier League is easy to follow in the United States because it’s on channels most people get and everyone speaks English. The Bundesliga: for people who think sports should be fun.

First thing’s first: How to watch this

While it won’t be as easy to watch the Bundesliga as it is the Premier League in America, we’re getting a giant upgrade this season. They won the Bundesliga in 2007 and have been competitive both in the league and in Europe since then — except for the last few years, when they have stunk. He’s young and really starting to come into his own, serving as a workhorse presence in Gladbach’s midfield who pops up all over the pitch to make plays in attack and defense. Sorry!

How’s that? Well, it comes through two different ways. It’s all exhausting.

Borussia Dortmund: They are no longer the top soccer hipster choice, but are not far enough removed from that era to have washed the stink off. In England, four teams failed to reach a goal per game, with only one bettering two goals per and four more over 1.5 goals per game — and that top group represents a wide gulf in scoring that doesn’t exist in Germany.

And besides, Bayern being able to win the league with ease creates other fun opportunities as well, not least of which being because …

They play a pants-on-head crazy style that no one else uses

Obsessing about the merits of one formation over another isn’t fascinating, but Bayern’s most commonly used tactic when David Alaba and Juan Bernat are both healthy is so totally insane that it needs to be addressed. They want to score spectacular goals, and that’s exactly what they do. Based on what he’s done so far, if he can stay healthy this could be an incredible season for Reus.

Hertha Berlin: They haven’t been able to get their ducks in a row and turn into a juggernaut post-reunification, but the possibility always exists that the biggest team in Germany’s biggest city could someday become a Champions League regular. Sometimes, to ill effect against top teams who know how to exploit the holes in it.

Who to support

A handy guide based on what you’re looking for in a team.

As an aside, if you wade into Bundesliga Twitter, you will inevitably run into Bayern Munich supporters who hype up their competition, because no one wants to be “handed” a title. If you tell long-time Bundesliga followers that you support Borussia Dortmund, they will roll their eyes at you. They also have top American prospect John Brooks. That leads to a lot of exciting, back-and-forth battles that you couldn’t tear your eyes away from if you tried.

So we already know who wins, right?

Yep, Bayern Munich wins. Why rob yourself of entertainment? Pick a different club to root for and watch these guys as a neutral.

Five non-Bayern players to keep an eye on

Marco Reus: One of the most dynamic attacking players in Europe, Reus can single-handedly turn around the fortunes of Borussia Dortmund after their year of struggle. If he doesn’t, they’ll be kicking themselves for not taking the money that was on the table for him two years ago.

Relegated: Ingolstadt, Darmstadt

Unlike other leagues where the focus is on preventing attacks altogether, or absorbing them and slowing them down, the Bundesliga takes a different tack. Do not let anyone disparage you for making this choice. There are worse choices, but we certainly can’t recommend them.

Champions League: Wolfsburg, Bayer Leverkusen

Ingolstadt: They’re in the Bundesliga for the first time in their history and they have American midfielder Alfredo Morales. Two, it draws defenders away from Robben (or Mller) and creates more space for him to operate in.

Speaking of Champions League qualification, Bayern’s dominance makes Germany’s other Champions League places a much hotter commodity

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m88 When I have the feeling that I become painful for the club, another coach will come in. “They want to know about my plans as soon as possible.

Pep Guardiola has no offers from other clubs and has not made any decision on his future beyond the end of the season, the Bayern Munich boss has insisted.

Pep Guardiola said he will ‘never become a problem’ for Bayern Munich.

There had been suggestions last season that Guardiola’s time should be brought to an early end after the club suffered a heavy defeat in the Champions League semifinals for a second year in succession.. “I have not yet decided what is best for this club — and I want to do the best for this club. I don’t want to become a problem for this club.”

Guardiola has won back-to-back league titles, winning the domestic double in his first season, but he said: “I have learnt that reaching the semifinals in Champions League is not enough here.”

New season, same old questions for Pep Guardiola. It has been like this for over 30 years, and so it also has been the case in the past two years.”

There have also been concerns about his influence on transfers given the uncertainty over his future.

However, speaking ahead of Saturday’s German Supercup clash with Wolfsburg, the former Barcelona coach said he has not made any decision about his next move.

However, Guardiola dismissed both claims.

Guardiola, 44, has entered the final year of the contract he signed in 2013, and there was fresh speculation at the weekend that he has already agreed terms with Manchester City for the 2016-17 season.

“Maybe the club is not happy about it [the delayed decision],” Guardiola said. Bayern’s new signing, midfielder Arturo Vidal, has claimed that his goal is to go one better than he did with Juventus, having lost this year’s Champions League final, and win the competition. That is the truth.

“This will be the last time I talk about it,” Guardiola told a news conference on Friday. I have not made a decision yet.

“When I have made a decision, I will inform [former president] Uli Hoeness, [CEO] Karl-Heinz Rummenigge and [sporting executive] Matthias Sammer. Bayern Munich coach Pep Guardiola says Arjen Robben will be fit, but warns his team ahead of their DFL-Cup game against Wolfsburg. It was the Brazilian forward who had the best of his Chilean team-mate, managing to nutmeg Vidal with a slick pass. That’s the situation.”

Bayern have said on several occasions that they plan enter talks with Guardiola later this year to clarify his position.

However, the coach said: “Listen, I will never become a problem for FC Bayern Munich. I will never become a problem for FC Bayern.”

“Maybe Effenberg knows more than me,” he said, adding: “I have not received an offer from any other club in this world.”

Former Bayern captain Stefan Effenberg said in German tabloid Bild on Friday that Guardiola was set to leave, and Qatar-based network beIN Sports has twice reported that he is set to join City.

He added: “At Bayern, the players are signed by the club, and the coach trains the players, who have been signed by the club

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Horse Betting Blog

Aug 25, 2016

awarding points for certain elements of form.

who returned 13.48 and 16.02 in the Betfair

Previous runs since August 1st 2014

Horses with 0-1 runs in this period – Subtract 5 points

Horses with 2 runs in this period – Subtract 3 Points

Horses with 3 runs – Subtract 0.5 points

Horses with 2 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 2pts

Horses with 3 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1pts


You want a decent Jumper

15 of the last 16 winners had not fallen more than twice before

This was the only statistic the 66/1 winner in 2013 failed

I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic

Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m

The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor

This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter

Horses aged 8 need looking at

Only 4 of the last 38 winners were 8 year olds

If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8

Be aware some horses are younger than their age

If Foaled after the day of the race they are really under 8

Most 8yo winners were foaled early before the race

Those foaled in May or later look opposable

They are just 7 and a few months old

Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with some confidence

Horses aged 6 and 7 are far too young

They haven’t won since 1940 and few finish the race

Chasing Experience is of obvious importance

The previous 24 winners had the following Chase runs

10 11 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14

Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994

He had 9 Chase runs and 3 other winners had 10 Chase starts

Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners

Posted under Major Horse Races

I have ignored rating 7 year olds as I know they would not score well.

We have to bear in mind the race is changing

The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs

Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts

Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts

The race has been maid easier too

Some may be prone to go full hog to find the one winner from forty horses.

Horses coming from Cheltenham Handicaps

Winning last time in that race – Subtract 1.5 points

Horses coming from any Cheltenham race

Beaten over 15 lengths in that race – Subtract 1pt

Horses that raced over hurdles since Aug 1st – Add 1 point

Horses starting 25/1 + last time if it was a Chase – Subtract 1.5pts



Best wishes and good luck for the National

Graded Races

#2 – Grand National Ratings Rules

Exchange place markets.

I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less

No horse won doing that with 21 or more runs

Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases

1 9 16 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7

Every winner bar 1 ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases

Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well

They won 15 of the last 23 renewals

Number of Handicap Chases won

Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases

1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2

No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

Seasonal Debutants should be avoided

Not having headgear is preferable to having it

Past Winners had the following number of wins that year

3 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0

There were 7 winners coming from Cheltenham

The 1994 1996 2015 winners came from the Gold Cup

Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)

The 2010 2014 winners came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle

Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race

Ideally I’d like good chase form in a big field

Ideally I’d avoid horses that were Novices last year


If you prefer to read to Guy’s personal final opinion

Others may see logic in aiming for a more achievable place.

is normally best left to day of the race.

Fields of 13 or more

The last 27 winners had the following runs that season

4 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season underperform

None have won with just 1 run

Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year

He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs

I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed

If under 25 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs


3m 6f and longer

on the day for the Grand National and multiple other races just book in at

Looking at Sires record

A few total outsiders I have also ducked.

21 of the last 22 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before

They had 5 3 5 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups

21 22 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8

I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts

10 of the last 15 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase start

Safe Sires

but his nine horse short list did highlight

Goonyella 53.00

Rocky Creek 52.50

Bishops Road 52.00 (Doubtful runner)

Gallant Oscar 52.00

Holywell 51.00

Unioniste 51.00

Soll 50.5

Just A Par 50.50

The Romford Pele 50.5

Many Clouds 50.00

The Druids Nephew 49.50

Aachen 49.00

Black Thunder 48.50

Triolo D’Alene 48.00

Le Reve 48.00

O’Faolains Boy 47.50

Saint Are  47.00

Kruzhlinin 47.00

Ballynagour 47.00

Double Ross 47.00

First Lieutenant 46.5

Boston Bob  46.5

On His Own 45.50

Ballycasey 45.50

Silviniaco Conti  45.00

Buywise 45.00

Sir Des Champs 45.00

Vics Canvas 45.00

Rule The World 44.50

Gilgamboa 43.50

The Last Samuri  42.5

Morning Assembly 41.50

Shutthefrontdoor 38.00

Wonderful Charm 37.00

Ucello Conti 36.50



Similar last year did semi ok.

Odds available is also of course a key part of the thinking




Horses winning Listed/Graded races – Add 1 point

Horses without any Graded form – Subtract 3 points

No point deductions for high weights this year

Older horses dominated recently.

of any value punter.

Good or Softer Ground

Horses with Under 3 Handicap Chase runs – Subtract 2pts

Only deduct 1 point if they have won a Grade 1-2 Chase

Only deduct 1 point if they have placed in a Grade 1 Chase

Horses running in 5-12 Handicap – Add a Point

Never won a Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point

Won 7 or more Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point

2 or more wins since August 1st 2014 – Subtract 1 point


I guess there will always be a degree of personal



Class is important in a National Winner

13 of the last 15 winners won in Listed Grade or higher

Ballabriggs (2011) did not do that

He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher

I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner

He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival

It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight

That was more than worthy or a Graded win

Pineau De Re (2014) did not do that either

He was 2nd in a Grade race though

24 of the last 25 had raced in Graded Class before

The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)

Again I make the point he could be seen differently

The vast majority of the runner ups also did this

The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced

Horses with 25 + runs must have past Graded Form

Having No Graded form is a serious worry


#3 – Grand National Horse Ratings

See Here ==:> Grand National Tip Winner

Unproven Sires

It did not pick up the winner Many Clouds

#1 – Race Statistics

Guy has been doing a bit of extra research for full members this

Negative Sires

#4 – Breeding Statistics

week into the Grand National.

2010 The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more

2011 The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2012 The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more

2013 The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2014 The 1st 2nd 6th were aged 10 or more

2015 The 3rd 4th were aged 10 or more

The last 25 winners all ran within 56 days

Look at the absences of the Runner Ups

56 24 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35

23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102

20 of the past 25 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

Theoretically the higher the number the better the chance

I have collated most of it here for you.


and to see the logic he used to select the winner

choice with such things.

Each horse starts with 50 Points

It is very important to have a recent race

The last 25 winners were absent this many days

29 23 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20

25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25



I hope the info below is a bit of extra help if

To read Guy’s final conclusions after interpreting his stats

you like to pick your own.


Grand National Stats – Ratings – Breeding

Horses that fail my Breeding Statistics will also face deductions

Horses absent 56-65 Days- Subtract 1 point

Horses absent 66-85 Days – Subtract 2 points

Horses absent 86-96 Days – Subtract 3 points

Horses absent 97-119 Days – Subtract 3.5 points

Horses absent 120 + days – Subtract 4 points

2nd and 3rd horses Saint Are and Monbeg Dude

Runs Since January 1st that year

Past winners had the following runs

2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4

20 of the last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1

Horses with under 2 runs in this period perform badly

Rule The World

Horses aged 7 – Subtract 5 Points

Horses aged 8 – Subtract 2 Points

Horses aged 8 Foaled after May 1st- Subtract 1 more point

Horses aged 10 – Add Half a Point

Horses aged 11 – Add Half a Point

Horses aged 12 – Subtract 2 Points

Horses aged 13 + Subtract 5 Points

Horses aged 8 have a 2pts deduction

Add an extra Point if they have won a Graded Chase before

Not Cross Country or Hunter Chases

Issues such as going and certain horses suitability to it or not

He has concocted a pretty complicated ratings system

Final decissions were made on Saturday morning.




#5 – Final Conclusions About What May Be A Value Grand National Tip



The Best profile on these scores belongs to Goonyella.

The records under these circumstances


Do not rule out highweights who scored well recently

Many have won before and the fences are easier now

Runs Since January 1st  2015

Horses with under 2 runs since Jan 1st – Subtract 2 points

If having 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1 point


Horses who did not win over 3m or more – Subtract 3 points

Horses that have won over 3m 3f or more – Add 1 point

Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter – Subtract 1.5 points

If that 2m 4f race is a Chase – Subtract 0.5 extra point

Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter – Subtract 1 point

If that horse has 21 or more career runs – Subtract 0.5 more points

Horses with Under 9 Chase starts – Subtract 3 points

Horses with under 3 Chase wins – Subtract 1.5 points

Horses with 3 or more Chase Falls – Subtract 2 points

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An arch-conservative Republican nominee could provide the Democrats with just enough room in the middle to win.

Singer Clay Aiken has been exploring a bid for Congress, but history suggests he may face an uphill battle if he runs. Ben Jones (D-Ga.). Aiken reportedly has already met with Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee leaders and is currently hiring campaign staff to prepare a run against Rep.

“I don’t think he wants a repeat performance of ‘American Idol,’” Randy Voller, North Carolina’s Democratic Party chair, said of Aiken. Ellmers has drawn a primary challenge from former banking executive and current radio talk show host Frank Roche. Roche has indicated that he intends to run to Ellmers’ right, attacking her vote to raise the debt ceiling and her support for immigration reform. In 2010, Ellmers won her seat from a Democratic incumbent by less than a single percentage point, just before redistricting transformed the 2nd into a fairly safe Republican seat. Flipping a seat controlled by the opposition party in the midterms is a heavy lift, and in a district where the president remains unpopular, it’s next to impossible.. Most celebrity candidates who have won political office, such as Ronald Reagan, Sonny Bono, Jesse Ventura, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Sean Duffy and Heath Shuler, ran in areas that aligned with their profiles and political leanings. Jones, a cast member of the TV show “The Dukes of Hazzard”, defeated then-incumbent Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) in North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District. Nick Rahall (D-W.Va.). All three representatives had the benefit of an entrenched incumbency in 2012, and each represents a district that was fundamentally altered by redistricting in 2010 to lean more Republican.

Aiken’s candidacy comes as prospects for Democratic congressional candidates appear less than ideal.

Recent reports say the former “American Idol” star has been laying the groundwork to run for the House of Representatives this year.

There are currently only three Democratic representatives in the House whose districts voted for Romney by comparable or higher margins than Ellmers’: Rep. Jim Matheson (D-Utah), Rep. And unlike Jones, Aiken will be running in a district made Republican through redistricting in an non-presidential year election.

But while a run against Ellmers would garner national and increased media attention, the numbers alone are not encouraging for Aiken, a registered Democrat. The president’s low approval rating can have a correlative affect on his party’s candidates, and the president’s party almost always loses congressional seats in midterm elections. Although no polls conducted in the district thus far have included him as a candidate, the area’s voting history does not bode well for a Democratic challenger.

Aiken’s fame could trump the district’s demographic and political leanings, but there is little precedent for the circumstances surrounding his potential run — a celebrity Democratic candidate campaigning in a heavily Republican state and district. Pat Swindall (R) in a conservative Atlanta district in 1988.

The district, which encompasses part of the Raleigh suburbs as well as a swath of the central and eastern parts of the state, voted for John McCain over President Barack Obama in 2008 by a 13-point margin. “I think he wants to finish first, not second.”

Aiken’s candidacy, however, still has a few things going for it. In addition, Aiken has a decade’s worth of show business connections that he could parlay into fundraising.

These advantages have yet to convince some onlookers, though. But he not only ran against a scandal-plagued incumbent — an advantage Aiken is unlikely to have — he also lost his seat four years later. Mike McIntyre (D-N.C.), and Rep. Democrats also hold a slight registration edge in the district, which has an African-American population that is several points larger than the national average. University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato continues to list the district as ‘Safe Republican’, while political handicappers Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook have yet to deem the race as being in play.

Aiken also has the benefit of a potentially divisive Republican primary. In 2012, the district voted for Mitt Romney over Obama by 16 points, while reelecting Ellmers by 14 points. He is from nearby Raleigh, and could bring a familiarity with the district and its issues to the campaign trail.

The candidate in recent electoral history whose success Aiken may most want to emulate is former Rep

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Gambling on sports may be more fun, but it’s definitely a more risky use of money than putting it in the stock market. People often invest in funds that buy dozens or even hundreds of stocks, which helps reduce the risk.

But take it from one person who has lots of experience in both worlds.

“Betting is more difficult and riskier,” said one resident of Hoboken, New Jersey, who bets on illegal gambling sites and also invests in stocks.

A stock can theoretically be held onto for an infinite amount of time, but a sports bet can end in the blink of an eye.

That’s the percentage of time that Stovall’s research shows the S&P 500 — the gold standard in the stock market — has increased in value during the years since 1926. He asked for his identity to be withheld due to legal concerns.

The same can’t be said for those who bet big on the Denver Broncos last Super Bowl. It’s easy to see why fans may be tempted to gamble on their favorite teams and athletes.

Manning is really, really good at what he does for a living.

CNNMoney (New York) First published August 31, 2014: 8:14 AM ET

Terms & Conditions apply

NMLS #1136

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They both believe they can predict the future, and they sometimes fall into the trap of making decisions with their hearts instead of their brains.

In the long run, investors have the chance to make more money because there are fewer downside risks.

Even the unlucky investors who jumped into the market at its peak in October 2007 eventually made their money back when stocks reclaimed their pre-recession levels in 2013.

“You can hold onto your betting tickets all your life, but you’re not going to get squat,” said Stovall.

Related: 4 reasons September could be good for stocks

The betting appeal: Americans bet an estimated $380 billion each year on sports. Which casino in Atlantic City, Las Vegas or Macau pays the bettor 73% of the time?” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at S&P Capital IQ.

To put it another way, the stock market is a lot more forgiving than the MGM Grand (let alone your local sports bookie). A bettor gambling on the Green Bay Packers will instantly lose his or her entire $500 bet if Aaron Rodgers and his teammates fail to win or cover the spread.

However, someone sinking $500 into Apple stock has little risk of losing that entire initial investment, especially in the short term. While many stocks offer steady returns, investors sometimes hit the jackpot (think: buying Apple back in early 2009 or Tesla in 2012).

Such hedging tools are not as readily or even feasible to sports gamblers, Fine said.

Related: How $2 billion Clippers bet could pay off

Gamblers and investors also have far different time horizons. Heck, even his commercials are funny. And in neither instance can you be guaranteed to be correct,” said Randall Fine, managing director of The Fine Point Group, one of the casino industry’s largest consulting firms. For example, a stop-loss order instructs a broker to dump a stock when it tumbles below a specific price.

Those are pretty good odds.

“A lot of people regard investing as gambling, but I frequently say no.

Related: Apple and 9 other stocks hit new records

Investors also have the ability to spread their money out among many stocks. The stock might go up and down some, but it typically doesn’t go to zero.

“A large, steady company has a low chance of plummeting and causing you to lose all your money, but even Peyton Manning doesn’t cover the spread sometimes,” he said.

But don’t let those similarities fool you.

At the same time, investing in stocks actually carries higher upside potential.



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. And of course, they both hate to lose.

All or nothing: Gambling on sports tends to be a zero-sum game.

And investors have greater access to tools that can minimize the risk of losing money.

“You’re making a wager based on some facts and some intuitions. Gambling on football star Peyton Manning to win might seem like a safe bet, especially compared with picking winners in the stock market

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Parlay Entertainment Inc. Unibet is one of the largest privately owned gambling operators in the European market with more than 1.3 million customers in over 100 countries.

Founded in 1997, Unibet offers a comprehensive range of online gambling products including sports betting, live betting, casino, poker, lotteries and soft games. “With its large, international player base, Unibet is an ideal partner to bring this popular form of entertainment to new markets. Unibet’s activities are licensed in the UK and in Malta.

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Parlay has an eight year proven track record built on the success of our clients: In 2005, more than 2.8 million players wagered nearly $2 billion USD on gaming websites that use Parlay software. that are forward-looking. Parlay Bingo is available in both 75-number and 90-number versions and is complemented by a full suite of lottery and casino games. Unibet Group plc has been listed on Stockholmsborsen’s O-list since June 2004. There is significant risk that predictions and other forward-looking statements will not prove to be accurate. Moving forward, Unibet will benefit from Parlay’s multilingual capabilities as it deploys its bingo offering in other countries.”

Unibet was founded in 1997 and is an online gambling company with its headquarters in London. As the inventor and patent holder of Internet bingo(1), Parlay is the first company in the world to develop and deploy a commercial Internet bingo product. By their nature, forward-looking statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. Unibet is a member of the EBA, European Betting Association and is certified by G4, Global Gaming Guidance Group. 6,585,590 “Method and system for operating a bingo game on the Internet”, with other Patent applications pending in other countries.

“We’re pleased to launch Unibet Bingo which will further broaden our ‘moneytainment’ offer. is the world’s leading developer and dominant licensor of Internet bingo solutions. Registered users can access the game through the Unibet gaming portal at www.unibet.com.

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This document may contain statements about expected future events and/or financial and operating results of Parlay Entertainment Inc. More brand name companies use Parlay’s leading technology than any other software company in the Internet bingo industry.

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In the question above, it would be much better to be a 55-percent handicapper if you were playing 150 games a month, as opposed to a 60-percent handicapper playing one game a day. At the end of the month, the 55-percent handicapper would have gone 83-67 for a gain of 9.3 units, while the 60-percent handicapper would have gone 18-12 for a profit of 4.8 units, so the 55-percent handicapper has made nearly twice as much.

If somebody were to ask you if you would rather be a 60-percent handicapper or a 55-percent handicapper, which would you choose? The obvious answer is that it’s better to be a 60-percent handicapper, but that isn’t necessarily true.

With baseball season coming back in about 4 months, many sports gamblers will be seeing ads from different sports services claiming winning percentages of 65-percent for baseball, and that’s entirely possibly, but what the services aren’t saying is that the majority of their selections were favorites of -200 or more, turning that 65-percent handicapping into a losing proposition.

The 55-percent handicapper is using what is commonly referred to as the Wal-Mart Approach, which is to have a lot of volume with the expectation of grinding out a small profit. The only statistic that sports bettors should be concerned with is units won, which is the amount of profit, or loss, they have over time, and not worry nearly as much about winning percentage. A winning percentage of 55-percent sure doesn’t sound as sexy as a 60-percent handicapper, but if your volume of plays is high enough, it can certainly be much more profitable.

. And as is the case with the Arkansas-based giant, many times this will be more profitable than being extremely selective and doing a small amount of volume, even if the mark-up is higher.

Making it more difficult for sports bettors is that some sports services will claim to have won 200 units in a particular sport, but don’t mention that they release 10- or 20-unit plays, along with several 100-unit “locks” at the end of the year if things aren’t going so well and they need something to base next year’s advertising on.

For the bettors that do their own handicapping, however, units won is really the only thing you should be concerned with, as that ultimately is going to translate into the bottom line

Hockey Betting Guide

Aug 19, 2016

What makes it even more exciting is betting on it. Most of these services are quite pricey. Your end of the road profit can be evaporated if you buy just one sports pick at $25. Use these to give yourself a better shot at cashing in winning tickets.

Point One: Pick the Winner

Point Two: Money Management

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

The world is full of “pro” sports handicappers willing to sell you their winners. Next, decide how many bets you want to play at a minimum. If you are a smaller player, you should never buy sports picks. Let’s say that amount is $1,000. Most sports bettors don’t think about this. There’s a good deal of money to be made in betting on hockey. Once you have them down, start to expand your horizons. $1,000 divided by 100 is $10.

Hockey can be exciting to watch. Here’s an easy way to do it. Better yet, decide how much money you will bet per game and stick to it. Let’s say 100, which is generally one a day or so. Your betting unit is $10. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Decide how much you are willing to lose for the whole season. Some hockey bettors second guess themselves and end up losing more times than they win. Betting is an ever-evolving process. The season is filled with betting opportunities. Simply decide which team is better and throw your money down.

Point Three: Buying Sports Picks

By: Sebastien Veilleux -

Start with these three hockey betting tips to get on the road to winning. Obvious. Don’t worry about how many games a team has won or lost in any situations. If you do this, you are making the sports handicapper money–not yourself.

Author is an sport betting editor at SportsGamblingReview.com, an online sportsbook review site. Even if you are not a wild hockey enthusiast, having a wager on a hockey game will make it worth watching. Bet $10 every time you make a wager.. What I mean by this is don’t second guess yourself. Good Luck.

Speaking of money, here’s an important point. Don’t get fooled. Streaks can continue for a long time and they will continue until they are over. Today, I will go over a few hockey betting pointers. They simply rush out to win for that day. It’s pretty simple from here on out. Let’s say you are a $10 player and bet 100 times at a 53% winning percentage. He blogs on NHL hockey betting.

No, I am not trying to be Mr. Doing so will eat away any profit you made

When the streak ends, the run of wins can be remarkable and being ready to take advantage of this turn for the best is the difference between an experience gambler and a novice. Another element of play should be immediately put into play. This where staying on an even keel as to confidence comes into play.

This article is the property of Safe Casinos

. Cut back on the size of your bets and the number of bets you make. It will happen to each player. How it is dealt with will determine how seriously the affect is on the gambler. This is a death play when drowning in a losing streak. Consider playing fewer days a week or month. Do not make the most serious mistake a gambler caught up in this situation can do and make larger wagers in hopes of getting even sooner. Knowing what to do and doing it is the answer to this negative side of gambling.

Surviving a losing streak is one of the most difficult situations any gambler can experience and hopefully overcome. Cut back your play is the correct move in these circumstances. Hands that have been losing at black jack suddenly start holding up or the dealer breaks on hands that previously were killing you. If you are a parlay player consider making smaller parlays or none at all for a period of time. This will work, but if gambling is a major part of your life, this is hard to do. Losing sessions can follow winning gaming sessions. The run of bad luck is coming to an end when you make a needed river card or hit a series of place bets on a dice table. Consider playing a different game or level of a game. No trend will stay in play forever, however the losing streaks are a part of gambling and must be addressed by each player. Losing streaks take a toll on the gambler’s stake and also on their confidence.

By: Adel Awwad -

Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com

Gambling cycles like all components in life. The biggest problem with any losing streak is the gambler does not know when it will end, but knows that it will end. It is this double dose of negativity that makes a losing streak so hard to deal with.

One way to survive is to just stop playing for a while. Change what you are doing, but remember “cut back ” is the operative words of strategy

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