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9 August 2016 14:21

The Ebor Handicap is the highlight of the Ebor meeting at York for their 4 day meeting in August.

I have looked at the last 10 years and looked at the following trends, Age, Official Rating, Recent Runs, Last Run, Year Runs, Year Wins, Group Form & Distance…. more

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 By Robmull in Horse Racing

 By Micko70 in Horse Racing

Betfred Hungerford Stakes At Newbury Key Race Trends – 13 August 2016

5 August 2016 12:07

 By Micko70 in Horse Racing

Test – Horse Racing Trends Sample Blog – 23 To 29 August 2016

 By monkeytennis in Horse Racing.  By Robmull in Horse Racing

9 August 2016 14:54

The Hungerford Stakes is a Group 2 race run over 7 furlongs at Newbury in August, which is open to all horses aged 2 or above.

It’s run over 1m 6f and has been won by some decent horses in it’s history, i have looked at the last 10 runnings of the race and looked at the following trends, Age, Weight, Official Rating, Last Time Out, Last Run, Year Runs, Year Wins, Distance & Draw…. more

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I do love the Shergar Cup – it divides opinion and fair play to those who want to avoid it completely but 10 runner class 2/3 handicaps at Ascot provide some great betting opportunities – especially when you can rule some of the runners out because of the jockey bookings….

During the past decade only 2 market leaders have obliged for a loss of 5…. more

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 By Micko70 in Horse Racing

The Winter Hill Stakes is one of those rare Group races that takes place at an evening meeting, it’s a Group 3 run over 1m 2f at Windsor on the last Saturday of August.

With an average field size of just over 8 runners during the past decade, the Hungerford Stakes often provides an interesting puzzle for punters to assess. more

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Shergar Cup 2016 Tips And Thoughts

13 August 2016 12:54

23 August 2016 16:18

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The Hungerford Stakes

Ebor Early Thoughts

24 August 2016 14:45

The Betfred Hungerford Stakes is a Group 2 race for runners aged 3 years and older, which is run over 7 furlongs at Newbury on Saturday, 13 August.

I have looked at the last 10 runnings of the race and looked at the following trends – Age, Official Rating, Last Time Out, Last Run, Year Runs, Year Wins & Group Form…. more

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The purpose of this blog is to provide trends based information that will hopefully assist readers to identify value and profitable wagers throughout the week.

Although it is highly unlikely that all of the trends detailed below will prove profitable to follow immediately, many of the statistics should be worth noting for consideration in the future…

It’s standing room only, but general admission guests can bring in food items, chairs, and blankets. Grab a glass of wine, snack on some food, listen to live music and speculate about which horse will take home the trophy.

Where to Watch

Race Day — May 2

Ladies usually wear dresses in light colors or pastels. The doors open at 8 a.m., and spectators can start placing their bets at 10 a.m. As for the men, they tend to wear seersucker suits or brightly colored pants.

Where to Stay

In addition to the 57-foot-long bar, this lounge also boasts plenty of screens to watch the race. Here are a couple of favorites.

If you’re not a horse racing aficionado but want to look like you know the ropes, here’s a dummy-proof guide to the Kentucky Derby.

Not only is Galt House the oldest hotel in Louisville, it also has beautiful waterfront views. If you’re looking for a place to watch the Mayweather vs. For more than 100 years, the bourbon-based drink has been the traditional beverage of Churchill Downs, and during Derby weekend, the venue plans to serve more than 120,000 of the cocktails.

Maker’s Mark Bourbon House & Lounge

Galt House Hotel

Churchill Downs

. Spectators are also encouraged to wear pink in honor of the feminine vibe and as a way to raise awareness for breast and ovarian cancer prevention. They are known for their athleticism and agility.

Bluegrass dominance: A term acknowledging that 75 percent of Kentucky Derby winners were bred in Kentucky.

Located in the heart of downtown Louisville, the Seelbach Hilton exudes southern charm. The race is known as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports,” and as you watch the powerful thoroughbred’s speeding around the track, you’ll certainly know why. go! The Kentucky Derby takes place every year on the first Saturday in May and is the culmination of the two-week-long Kentucky Derby festival. On Derby day there will surely be some colorful characters in the hotel lobby.

This is the one time of year when you can wear a hat like this and not end up on a worst-dressed list.

Lingo you should know

Before the Race

Jockey: The man who rides the horse.

Old Seelbach Bar

Thoroughbred: The horses that run in the Derby. It is also commonly referred to as the “Run for the Roses.” This year there are 20 contenders for the top prize.

If you can’t get tickets to the big show, there are viewing parties all over Louisville, and most bars will be showing the big race. General admission tickets are available for $55. F. Every year more than 100,000 spectators from around the world show up for the race, wearing their colorful hats and sipping bourbon.

To get people revved up for the big race on Saturday, Churchill Downs hosts the Kentucky Oaks race the day before the big event. Scott Fitzgerald used the location as a backdrop for Tom and Daisy Buchanan’s wedding in the Great Gatsby, and the Old Seelbach Bar has some of the best bourbon in town. Refers to the fact that if they lose, they may be jumping off the nearest bridge.

The Kentucky Derby may last only two minutes, but in Louisville, it’s a monthlong celebration with more than 70 events, including parties and concerts. From feathers to ribbon and bows, anything goes.

Mint juleps are made with bourbon, mint, and a kick.

Show bet: A wager on a horse to finish third of better.

This authentically restored, early 1900s bar features an expansive bourbon collection and cocktails made from scratch.

Place bet: A wager on a horse to finish first or second.

It wouldn’t be the Kentucky Derby without a mint julep in your hands. The average jockey is 5?4? and weighs just 112 pounds.

Longines Kentucky Oaks — Friday, May 1

And if you just want to stumble upon something great, 4 Street Live! has a variety of bars and restaurants guaranteed to be showing the race.

This is your chance to mingle with horse racing celebrities while sampling some of the best food in Kentucky. The Taste of Derby brings together award-winning chefs from regional restaurants who prepare everything from seafood to barbecue. All modern thoroughbreds can trace their pedigrees to three stallions originally brought to England in the 17th and 18th centuries. Instead of large male thoroughbreds, this race features 3-year-old thoroughbred fillies (young female horses). Pacquiao fight, the hotel is hosting a watch party.

Bridge jumper: A person who bets an unusually large sum on a single horse. Many love the party atmosphere you get from standing in the infield.

What to Drink

What to wear

Seelbach Hilton Louisville

Exacta/perfecta: A wager on two specific horses to cross the finish line in first and second place in exact order.

When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, the bigger your hat, the better. Chances are the bar will be crowded during the derby, so get there early if you want a good seat.

Taste of Derby — Thursday, April 30

On your mark, get set … More than 100,000 people attend the event, making it one of most popular horse races in American horse-racing society.

Every year, the Kentucky Derby takes place at Churchill Downs. Beyond making the obvious fashion statement, wearing a colorful hat is said to bring good luck

Horse Betting Blog

Aug 25, 2016

awarding points for certain elements of form.

who returned 13.48 and 16.02 in the Betfair

Previous runs since August 1st 2014

Horses with 0-1 runs in this period – Subtract 5 points

Horses with 2 runs in this period – Subtract 3 Points

Horses with 3 runs – Subtract 0.5 points

Horses with 2 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 2pts

Horses with 3 runs and 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1pts

SIR DES CHAMPS

You want a decent Jumper

15 of the last 16 winners had not fallen more than twice before

This was the only statistic the 66/1 winner in 2013 failed

I wouldn’t rule a horse out on this statistic

Every winner since 1970 had won over at least 3m

The record of horses from 2m 4f or shorter is poor

This is worse when its a Chase over 2m 4f or shorter

Horses aged 8 need looking at

Only 4 of the last 38 winners were 8 year olds

If you bet an 8 year old make sure it is actually 8

Be aware some horses are younger than their age

If Foaled after the day of the race they are really under 8

Most 8yo winners were foaled early before the race

Those foaled in May or later look opposable

They are just 7 and a few months old

Horses aged 13 can also be opposed with some confidence

Horses aged 6 and 7 are far too young

They haven’t won since 1940 and few finish the race

Chasing Experience is of obvious importance

The previous 24 winners had the following Chase runs

10 11 23 27 12 12 24 14 13 10 11 37 41 14 12 24 17 25 10 23 16 9 14 28 14

Least Experienced Chaser was Miinnehoma in 1994

He had 9 Chase runs and 3 other winners had 10 Chase starts

Horses with Under 9 Chase runs are unlike any past winners

Posted under Major Horse Races

I have ignored rating 7 year olds as I know they would not score well.

We have to bear in mind the race is changing

The 2012 4th (Cappa Blue) had just 6 chase runs

Mely Moss was 2nd in 2000 with 5 Chase starts

Lord Atterbury was 3rd in 2004 with 4 Chase starts

The race has been maid easier too

Some may be prone to go full hog to find the one winner from forty horses.

Horses coming from Cheltenham Handicaps

Winning last time in that race – Subtract 1.5 points

Horses coming from any Cheltenham race

Beaten over 15 lengths in that race – Subtract 1pt

Horses that raced over hurdles since Aug 1st – Add 1 point

Horses starting 25/1 + last time if it was a Chase – Subtract 1.5pts

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THE DRUIDS NEPHEW- ROYALE KNIGHT – BOSTON BOB

Best wishes and good luck for the National

Graded Races

#2 – Grand National Ratings Rules

Exchange place markets.

I Looked at horses from handicap chases over 2m 6f or less

No horse won doing that with 21 or more runs

Recent winners had ran in the following Handicap Chases

1 9 16 9 7 5 21 8 8 6 6 24 33 7 12 14 12 15 7 16 7 4 7

Every winner bar 1 ran in at least 4 Handicap Chases

Horses running in 5-12 Handicap Chases did well

They won 15 of the last 23 renewals

Number of Handicap Chases won

Recent winners had won the following Handicap Chases

1 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 3 3 2 3 6 0 4 4 5 4 3 3 1 1 2

No past winner had won more than 6 Handicap Chases

Seasonal Debutants should be avoided

Not having headgear is preferable to having it

Past Winners had the following number of wins that year

3 1 0 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 0

There were 7 winners coming from Cheltenham

The 1994 1996 2015 winners came from the Gold Cup

Bindaree 2002 came from the Trophy Handicap (6th)

The 2010 2014 winners came from the Pertemps H’Cap Hurdle

Silver Birch 2007 came from the Cross Country race

Ideally I’d like good chase form in a big field

Ideally I’d avoid horses that were Novices last year

THE ROMFORD PELE -WONDERFUL CHARM – BUYWISE

If you prefer to read to Guy’s personal final opinion

Others may see logic in aiming for a more achievable place.

is normally best left to day of the race.

Fields of 13 or more

The last 27 winners had the following runs that season

4 7 4 3 4 6 4 5 6 6 5 9 6 6 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 3 5 4 6 7 6

Horses with 1-2-3 runs that season underperform

None have won with just 1 run

Only Miinnehoma 1994 won with 2 runs that year

He had 9 Chase starts and 17 career runs

I can live with 3 runs if the horse is unexposed

If under 25 National Hunt runs and 9-20 chase runs

BALLYCASEY -GOONYELLA – SOLL -ON HIS OWN

3m 6f and longer

on the day for the Grand National and multiple other races just book in at

Looking at Sires record

A few total outsiders I have also ducked.

21 of the last 22 winners had 3-4-5-6-7 Chase wins before

They had 5 3 5 11 4 4 3 5 4 3 3 5 7 3 5 6 5 7 3 5 6 4 5 Chase wins

I looked at the Chase runs of the last 20 Runner Ups

21 22 9 11 10 24 18 11 13 15 23 14 20 10 11 9 19 14 9 8 24 32 22 8

I would be wary of any horses with under 10 Chase starts

10 of the last 15 winners had just 10-15 previous Chase start

Safe Sires

but his nine horse short list did highlight

Goonyella 53.00

Rocky Creek 52.50

Bishops Road 52.00 (Doubtful runner)

Gallant Oscar 52.00

Holywell 51.00

Unioniste 51.00

Soll 50.5

Just A Par 50.50

The Romford Pele 50.5

Many Clouds 50.00

The Druids Nephew 49.50

Aachen 49.00

Black Thunder 48.50

Triolo D’Alene 48.00

Le Reve 48.00

O’Faolains Boy 47.50

Saint Are  47.00

Kruzhlinin 47.00

Ballynagour 47.00

Double Ross 47.00

First Lieutenant 46.5

Boston Bob  46.5

On His Own 45.50

Ballycasey 45.50

Silviniaco Conti  45.00

Buywise 45.00

Sir Des Champs 45.00

Vics Canvas 45.00

Rule The World 44.50

Gilgamboa 43.50

The Last Samuri  42.5

Morning Assembly 41.50

Shutthefrontdoor 38.00

Wonderful Charm 37.00

Ucello Conti 36.50

SAINT ARE – DOUBLE ROSS – RULE THE WORLD

MANY CLOUDS – SILVINIACO CONTI

Similar last year did semi ok.

Odds available is also of course a key part of the thinking

BISHOPS ROAD – KATENKO – HOLYWELL

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR – ROCKY CREEK – KRUZHLININ

Mick

Horses winning Listed/Graded races – Add 1 point

Horses without any Graded form – Subtract 3 points

No point deductions for high weights this year

Older horses dominated recently.

of any value punter.

Good or Softer Ground

Horses with Under 3 Handicap Chase runs – Subtract 2pts

Only deduct 1 point if they have won a Grade 1-2 Chase

Only deduct 1 point if they have placed in a Grade 1 Chase

Horses running in 5-12 Handicap – Add a Point

Never won a Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point

Won 7 or more Handicap Chases – Subtract 1 point

2 or more wins since August 1st 2014 – Subtract 1 point

THE LAST SAMURI – PENDRA – VICS CANVAS

I guess there will always be a degree of personal

http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/daypass

PERFECT CANDIDATE – HADRIAN´S APPROACH

Class is important in a National Winner

13 of the last 15 winners won in Listed Grade or higher

Ballabriggs (2011) did not do that

He had won in Class 2 race but hadn’t been tested in higher

I’d argue he should be seen as a Graded winner

He won the 2010 Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival

It was a Class 2 handicap but he did that with Topweight

That was more than worthy or a Graded win

Pineau De Re (2014) did not do that either

He was 2nd in a Grade race though

24 of the last 25 had raced in Graded Class before

The exception was Ballabriggs (2011)

Again I make the point he could be seen differently

The vast majority of the runner ups also did this

The ones that did not were mainly lightly raced

Horses with 25 + runs must have past Graded Form

Having No Graded form is a serious worry

****************************************************

#3 – Grand National Horse Ratings

See Here ==:> Grand National Tip Winner

Unproven Sires

It did not pick up the winner Many Clouds

#1 – Race Statistics

Guy has been doing a bit of extra research for full members this

Negative Sires

#4 – Breeding Statistics

week into the Grand National.

2010 The 1st 2nd 3rd 5th 6th 7th 8th were aged 10 or more

2011 The 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2012 The 1st 4th 5th 6th 7th were aged 10 or more

2013 The 1st 2nd 4th 5th 6th were aged 10 or more

2014 The 1st 2nd 6th were aged 10 or more

2015 The 3rd 4th were aged 10 or more

The last 25 winners all ran within 56 days

Look at the absences of the Runner Ups

56 24 49 30 45 49 25 27 21 22 22 100 35

23 63 345 28 16 44 18 42 21 23 23 102

20 of the past 25 Runners Ups also ran within 7 weeks

Theoretically the higher the number the better the chance

I have collated most of it here for you.

****************************************************

and to see the logic he used to select the winner

choice with such things.

Each horse starts with 50 Points

It is very important to have a recent race

The last 25 winners were absent this many days

29 23 35 56 35 23 21 41 32 27 48 28 20

25 42 20 24 35 23 16 35 23 35 23 25

****************************************************

****************************************************

I hope the info below is a bit of extra help if

To read Guy’s final conclusions after interpreting his stats

you like to pick your own.

FIRST LIEUTENANT -HOME FARM- UNIONISTE

Grand National Stats – Ratings – Breeding

Horses that fail my Breeding Statistics will also face deductions

Horses absent 56-65 Days- Subtract 1 point

Horses absent 66-85 Days – Subtract 2 points

Horses absent 86-96 Days – Subtract 3 points

Horses absent 97-119 Days – Subtract 3.5 points

Horses absent 120 + days – Subtract 4 points

2nd and 3rd horses Saint Are and Monbeg Dude

Runs Since January 1st that year

Past winners had the following runs

2 2 3 2 3 2 3 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 3 2 3 3 4

20 of the last 21 winners had at least 2 runs since Jan 1

Horses with under 2 runs in this period perform badly

Rule The World

Horses aged 7 – Subtract 5 Points

Horses aged 8 – Subtract 2 Points

Horses aged 8 Foaled after May 1st- Subtract 1 more point

Horses aged 10 – Add Half a Point

Horses aged 11 – Add Half a Point

Horses aged 12 – Subtract 2 Points

Horses aged 13 + Subtract 5 Points

Horses aged 8 have a 2pts deduction

Add an extra Point if they have won a Graded Chase before

Not Cross Country or Hunter Chases

Issues such as going and certain horses suitability to it or not

He has concocted a pretty complicated ratings system

Final decissions were made on Saturday morning.

ONENIGHTINVIENNA – LE REVE – TRIOLO D´ALENE

JUST A PAR – AACHEN – BLACK THUNDER – UCELLO CONTI

GILGAMBOA -BALLYNAGOUR -MORNING ASSEMBLY

#5 – Final Conclusions About What May Be A Value Grand National Tip

GALLANT OSCAR -O´FAOLAINS BOY

Cheers

The Best profile on these scores belongs to Goonyella.

The records under these circumstances

****************************************************

Do not rule out highweights who scored well recently

Many have won before and the fences are easier now

Runs Since January 1st  2015

Horses with under 2 runs since Jan 1st – Subtract 2 points

If having 21 + Chase starts – Subtract another 1 point

****************************************************

Horses who did not win over 3m or more – Subtract 3 points

Horses that have won over 3m 3f or more – Add 1 point

Horses coming from 2m 4f or shorter – Subtract 1.5 points

If that 2m 4f race is a Chase – Subtract 0.5 extra point

Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter – Subtract 1 point

If that horse has 21 or more career runs – Subtract 0.5 more points

Horses with Under 9 Chase starts – Subtract 3 points

Horses with under 3 Chase wins – Subtract 1.5 points

Horses with 3 or more Chase Falls – Subtract 2 points

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